Credit Suisse is on the way to become a takeover candidate. This is what a renowned Swiss financial expert estimates. His analysis of the bank's new strategy is pungent.

The short and sharp analysis of Guenter Kaeser gives little credit to the new board of Credit Suisse, led by CEO Tidjane Thiam. The founder and owner of KK Group, an established financial services and research company isn't holding back in his analysis, which was obtained by finews.ch.

The long-term targets formulated by the new executive team of CS are more or less a sweeping blow to the predecessors under Brady Dougan. Kaeser thinks the appraisal that both the investment bank and wealth management were in crisis is pretty surprising, because the board of the bank should have known for years if that were to be the case.

Business as Usual

Thiam's strategy didn't spring any surprises: capital increase? As expected. Efficiency gains and new growth markets? Business as usual.

Of real interest to the research professional is basically only the plan to split off the «Swiss Universal Bank». «It's a safe bet that this will pave the way for a takeover or merger of the 'International Bank',» Kaeser writes.

Classic Target

The equation is simple. Taking away the Swiss part of CS leaves behind a wealth manager and investment bank of modest size in a global perspective. This institute will have less than 1,000 billion francs in assets under management and will generate a maximum 5 to 7 billion francs in pretax earnings.

«This is a classic and coveted takeover candidate, easily swallowed by a global institute,» Kaeser estimates.

With this approach, the new management creates a tempting exit option should the bank not reach the ambitious operative targets. It would be the end of the good old Swiss bank of Alfred Escher.

Surprised? No, CS has been managed by a U.S. banker before, staunchly resisting the «Swissness» trend. Today, the fate of the oldest Swiss banking giant is in the hands of a so-called star manager with a Franco-Anglo-Saxon DNA without any experience in wealth management and without any relation to Switzerland.