In Norway, there is a tradition at the turn of the year that I observe every time with a mixture of admiration and quiet disbelief: the so-called Julebad, a dip in ice-cold water that is supposed to clear the body and mind for the new year.

I myself prefer to leave this heroic start to the particularly brave – but I like the idea behind it. Because this moment, when everything superfluous falls away and only the essentials remain, feels symbolically right for the start of the year. Even without stepping into the fjord water, I consciously take this mental clarity with me: a fresh perspective, an open mind and the willingness to approach the opportunities of a new year with calm and Nordic pragmatism.

AI Supercycle and Healthcare Sector

Our assessment of the global economic environment for 2026 remains positive. The global economy is starting the new year with noticeable tailwinds: monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and a broad-based investment cycle – led by artificial intelligence – are creating a constructive foundation.

The geopolitical environment remains challenging. Structural competition between the major blocs of the US, China and Europe is intensifying, creating new dependencies in the long term, but also new opportunities. This opens up interesting prospects, particularly for regions such as the Nordics and for those European industries that are globally competitive.

Against this backdrop, we are aligning our strategic positioning with the forces that are shaping the cycle. The healthcare sector in particular stands for structural growth: an ageing, ly affluent population, medical innovations and the increasing use of AI in research, diagnostics and clinical processes are ensuring long-term demand and attractive valuations. Similarly, the AI supercycle remains a key growth driver. Global investment in data centres is creating a broad industrial effect – from hyperscalers and semiconductors to energy and construction companies. AI is also playing an increasingly important role in our own investment practice, whether in modelling, research or the evaluation of large amounts of data.

Centres of Excellence Crucial for Innovation

In this complex environment, Europe and the Nordics offer stable counterweights to the two dominant economic areas of the US and China. Companies in sectors such as industrial efficiency, automation, electrification, telecommunications infrastructure, life sciences, semiconductor technology, logistics and software solutions continue to play leading roles globally. They also have strong positions and solid demand in the defence and security sector. These centres of excellence are not only resilient, but also crucial for innovation and competitiveness on a global scale.

The AI boom naturally raises the question of valuations. Although the multiples of some mega-caps are high, they reflect robust business models, strong margins and solid cash flows. A correction would not be unusual, but structurally we see less of a risk of a bubble and more of a continuous expansion of a multi-layered ecosystem.

Down-to-Earth Pragmatism

The outlook for renewable energies also remains positive, despite occasional financing fluctuations. Rapidly rising electricity demand – not least due to AI infrastructure – is creating sustained investment pressure. In regulatory terms, the environment is more stable than is often perceived, and the competitiveness of the technologies remains high.

2026 is therefore starting under very favourable conditions: falling inflation, fiscal support, declining trade barriers and a powerful technological investment cycle are shaping the environment.

For us as a Norwegian asset manager, this is an environment that we approach with confidence, but also with the down-to-earth pragmatism that is deeply rooted in the North.

The world is facing far-reaching technological and economic changes – and this is precisely where we see the best opportunities for long-term investors.

Knut Hellandsvik, Chief Investment Officer at DNB Asset Management DNB Asset Management.